We enter the fourth quarter with the lagged effects of policy uncertainty visible in both hard and soft economic data. Global growth has slowed, led by manufacturing, and central banks stand ready to provide additional stimulus. The OECD estimates the global economy will grow 3.3% in 2019 and 3.4% in 2020, down from 3.6% in 2018. We anticipate further downward revisions until easier monetary policy percolates throughout globaleconomies and/or fiscal stimulus is enacted.

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