Global Economic & Market Commentary — Fourth Quarter 2019
Global equities ended the decade with a fourth quarter surge fueled by Fed cuts and positive geopolitical developments, namely a Phase one trade agreement and additional clarity around Brexit. Global recessionary fears have largely abated entering 2020, a stark contrast from last January. Manufacturing data has stopped deteriorating and strong consumption has offset a weak capital investment cycle. US GDP growth will likely drift below 2.0% in early 2020, but we are hopeful business investment recovers, boosting data in the second half of the year. Outside
of the US, Japan, Germany and other export-driven countries depend on a resurgence in global trade. An emerging market economic rebound, which provides the most upside for global growth, hinges on both improving global tradeand a pick-up in fixed investment. The IMF currently forecasts 3.3% global growth in 2020 following 2.9% in 2019 and 3.7% in 2018. This period marks the slowest annual growth rate since
the financial crisis.